We
are leaving our moderate
risk, 'C' credit rating on CVS Caremark
intact, but we are reducing our
outlook to a new level of negative
(from a previous level of stable) to denote the possibility of a future
downgrade.
On the surface, the latest numbers reported in the firm's third quarter
and nine-month results are anything but troubling. In retail
specifically, the company has enjoyed a nice spurt in its pharmacy
comps and has managed to keep front-end business growing, albeit at
low-single digit levels.
However, the real issue relates to
business drops for fiscal 2010 in the pharmacy services segment that
will impact results next year. In aggregate, while this segment
has booked $1.4 billion in new business wins, it has suffered $4.5
billion in losses. The losses relate to about $1.7 billion tied to
500,000 dual eligibles (Medicare Part D beneficiaries who are also
eligible for Medicaid), and the bulk of the remainder comprised
unrenewed contracts with the states of New Jersey and Ohio, Coventry
Healthcare, and Chrysler's retirees. Pricing, customer service, and
preference for working with a smaller PBM that did not also own
drugstores were identified as reasons for these customer departures.
These losses essentially wipe out any hope of the segment growing its
operating profit in fiscal 2010; a more realistic assumption for this
segment could involve its operating profit declining 10% to 12%.
Firmwide results will be buffered by the retail segment, which should
augment its operating income by 13% to 16% in fiscal 2010. Thankfully,
the balance sheet provides an ample cushion to fully support the
business while management works to restore higher levels of growth in
its pharmacy services segment.
As of September 30, 2009, CVS operated 7,008 retail drugstores across
41
states
and Washington D.C. under the CVS or Longs Drug banners. The firm
currently operates 569 retail health care clinics in 25 states under
the Minute Clinic name (554 of them are located in CVS stores). As a
reminder, the firm's fiscal year now ends on December 31st as opposed
to the Saturday nearest to December 31st. The recent third quarter
ended included 92 days this year versus 91 last year; however, the
nine-month figures for fiscal 2009 and fiscal 2008 each include 273
days.
OPERATING
PERFORMANCE: 9
MONTHS ENDED SEPTEMBER 30, 2009
$ in millions,
39 weeks endED
9/30/2009
YOY
Var.
9/27/2008
Total Sales
$72,906.9
15.1%
$63,329.7
Operating Profit
$4,542.9
5.3%
$4,314.4
Net Income
$2,646.2
17.2%
$2,259.3
Gross
Margin
20.3%
(31 bps)
20.6%
SG&A
Burden
14.1%
29 bps
13.8%
Operating
Profit
Margin
6.2%
(58
bps)
6.8%
Return
on Sales
3.6%
6 bps
3.6%
During Q3 2009, CVS Caremark
reported revenue
growth of 18.1% to $24.6
billion, which was comprised of retail segment growth of 17.9% to $13.6
billion and pharmacy services segment growth of 23.4% to $13.0 billion.
For the nine months ended September 30, 2009, the firm's revenues rose
15.1% to $72.9 billion as retail segment revenue improved 16.3% to
$40.9 billion while pharmacy services segment sales grew 17.5% to $37.6
billion. Simply
adding the segment totals together to reconcile the firm's total
revenue base also requires accounting for intersegment eliminations of
$2.0 billion during Q3 2009 and $5.6 billion on a year-to-date basis.
Same store
sales, which will only begin to include
the Longs stores in November 2009, rose 5.7% during Q3 2009 and
increased 5.0% during the first nine months of fiscal 2009.
Third quarter comps performance was driven by 8.0% pharmacy growth and
0.8% front-end growth. Year-to-date comps have seen a 6.7% rise in
pharmacy coupled with a 1.5% rise in the front-end.
During the last quarter ended, the firm's
pharmacy services revenues broke down in the following manner: $8.8
billion of retail network, $4.2 billion of mail service, and $91.6
million of other. For the
nine months ended September 30, 2009, the firm's
pharmacy services revenues broke down in the following manner: $24.9
billion of retail network, $12.4 billion of mail service, and $263.5
million of other. This unit processed a total of 162.9 million and
490.4 million pharmacy
claims during Q3 2009 and fiscal 2009YTD, respectively, with about 90%
of them
coming from retail and
the remaining 10% coming from mail order.
A couple of new reporting changes are worth noting. First, when
pharmacy services customers elect to pick-up their maintenance
prescriptions at retail segment stores instead of receiving them
through the mail, each segment now records the revenue, gross profit,
and operating profit on a standalone basis and corresponding
intersegment eliminations are made. Previously, each segment only
recorded the revenue on a
standalone basis. Secondly, certain administrative expenses that
benefit both segments equally (such as executive management, legal,
compliance, corporate relations, etc.) were reclassified out of the
pharmacy services and retail segments into a new corporate segment.
CVS Caremark's gross margin fell 75 basis points in Q3 2009 and
declined 31 basis points on a year-to-date basis, both to 20.3%.
Pressure upon retail segment gross margins (down 103 basis points in Q3
2009 and down 43 basis points year-to-date) was related to third party
reimbursement rates, more significant levels of promotional items being
purchased by customers, which offset the benefit of generic drug sales.
Pharmacy services segment gross margins (down 54 basis points in Q3
2009 and down 56 basis points year-to-date) were off due to both
pricing concessions on a few large contracts and a change in the
revenue recognition method for Rx America. Generic
drugs continue to be very
prevalent, representing 69.6% of scripts dispensed in the retail
segment and 67.9% of scripts dispensed in the pharmacy services
segment during the first nine months of 2009. Private label penetration
(excluding Longs) rose 120 basis
points to 17.0% of front-end sales during Q3 2009. Private label
penetration in the Longs stores climbed to 11.0%, lower than we'd like
to see but much improved from prior levels. The firm's SG&A
burden was down 8 basis points to 14.0% during Q3 2009, but was up 27
basis points to 14.1% on a year-to-date basis; despite integration
costs surrounding
Longs and RxAmerica, the firm exhibited strong expense control in the
most recent quarter ended. CVS
Caremark's operating margin came in at 6.4% for the third quarter and
6.2% for the year-to-date period,
down 58 basis points and 68 basis points respectively.
The firm's operating margin results were indicative of pharmacy
services margin lost on the gross line basically falling to the
operating line and some headway being made on the retail side of its
business. Specifically, pharmacy services operating margins fell 55
basis points during Q3 2009 and declined 67 basis points thus far this
year. Conversely, retail operating margins fell 81 basis points during
Q3 2009 and dipped 50 basis points on a year-to-date basis.
SEGMENT ANALYSIS: 9
MONTHS ENDED SEPTEMBER 30, 2009
$
IN MILLIONS, 39 WEEKS ENDED
9/30/2009
YOY
VAR.
9/27/2008
Retail Pharmacy
Segment
-Net Revenue (1)
$40,899.5
16.3%
$35,158.4
-Gross Profit
$12,081.6
14.7%
$10,536.4
-Operating Profit
$2,938.1
8.8%
$2,701.1
Pharmacy
Services Segment
-Net Revenue (1)
$37,573.0
17.5%
$31,984.9
-Gross Profit
$2,760.1
9.1%
$2,530.6
-Operating Profit
$2,033.0
4.5%
$1,946.0
(1) -
before intersegment eliminations of $5,565.6 million in fiscal 2009YTD
and $3,813.6 million in fiscal 2008YTD.
LIQUIDITY & FINANCIAL
STRUCTURE
On September 30, 2009, CVS
had more than $1.1 billion of cash
and
equivalents on its balance sheet.
Three unsecured back-up facilities worth $1.4 billion, $1.3 billion,
and $675 million provided the firm's liability-side liquidity; a fourth
facility in the amount of $675 million was permitted to expire in June
2009. As of September's end, CVS Caremark had no direct borrowings
against
these revolvers. The bank lines did however backstop commercial paper
borrowings of $1.1 billion; commercial paper usage continues to come
down on a sequential quarterly basis with the firm having paid off $1.4
billion of C/P borrowings since fiscal 2008's end. Although
not cited in the 10-Q filing, we estimate CVS Caremark to have had
approximately $7.0 million of outstanding L/Cs as of the fall
statement date. Taking into account the above figures, aggregate availability on these lines
totaled about $2.27 billion as of September 30, 2009.
Cash flow from operations of
$2.2 billion rose only 2.4% but was adequate enough to cover nearly
$1.8 billion of capital expenditures
in the first nine months of fiscal 2009. The limited year-over-year
growth of CVS Caremark's operating cash flow was related to higher
income taxes paid, offset by higher bottom-line profits. While
receivables and inventories reduced operating cash flow more so than
they did last year, payables benefited operating cash on a year-to-date
basis while lowering it last year. Looking at the cash flow statement,
it appears that CVS Caremark has utilized sale leaseback proceeds to
help fund its capital investment program. On a year-to-date basis, sale
leaseback proceeds had risen 280% to $748.2 million. In terms of
specific store-related activity, the firm has opened 155 new stores,
relocated 101 stores and 2 specialty pharmacy stores so far this year.
Additionally, 70 retail pharmacies, 8 specialty pharmacies, and 1 mail
order pharmacy were closed during the nine months ended September 30,
2009.
Similar to actions taken in March and July
of this year, CVS Caremark took the opportunity to issue longer-term
financing in September to replace short-term borrowings. To this
end, the firm issued $1.5 billion of 6.125% unsecured senior notes that
do not mature until September 2039. Proceeds were used to, among other
things, pay down another $200 million of commercial paper borrowings in
Q3 2009 and pay off $650 million of unsecured notes. Back in March
2009, CVS issued $1.0
billion of 6.6% unsecured senior notes due March 2019 to pay off the
remaining borrowings from its $1.2
billion bridge loan facility that was used to finance the Longs
Drug Stores purchase and also pay down commercial paper borrowings.
Then in July 2009, CVS Caremark issued another $300 million of
unsecured floating
rate senior notes due January 30, 2011 for general corporate purposes.
CVS Caremark's total debt has escalated 23% to nearly
$12.0 billion on
a year-over-year basis. Roughly $3.2 billion of the firm's
debt is classified as current; given the creditworthiness of this
retailer, we are not concerned about the firm's ability to either
pay down or refinance these borrowings. The company's
debt-to-capitalization of 25% is up from the 22% level seen last fall.
CVS Caremark's tangible net worth, which returned to positive territory
this summer, returned to a deficit level of $151.1 million; on a
year-over-year basis, this figure still compares favorably with the
$386.2 million deficit seen in September 2008. Driving the tangible net worth erosion on a
sequential quarterly basis was an acceleration of share purchase
activity, as more than $1.5 billion of its own common stock was bought
back in Q3 2009. Cash dividend payments totaling $330.8 million
were up 22% through the third quarter's end.